BlackBerry (BB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

BlackBerry's financial outlook appears strong, as evidenced by an increase in net cash to $181 million, reflecting robust cash flow management. The company has demonstrated significant improvement in gross margins, with QNX gross margin rising to 83% and Secure Communications gross margin increasing to 72.2%, indicating operational efficiencies and a favorable revenue mix. Additionally, updated revenue projections for FY26 and FY27 signal positive growth potential, with expectations of total revenue rising to $539 million and $571 million, respectively, alongside an increase in EBITDA forecasts to $111 million by FY27.

BlackBerry's financial outlook is jeopardized by a decline in its Secure Communications gross margin, which fell by 330 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 66%, indicating a less favorable revenue mix. Despite an early cash flow positivity, the company's annual recurring revenue (ARR) for Secure Communications remained flat year-over-year at $216 million, coupled with a decrease in dollar-based net retention rate (DBNRR) to 92%. Additionally, while the mid-point of FY26 guidance was raised, projected revenue growth rates for upcoming quarters are anticipated to decline significantly, reflecting broader challenges in market demand and tougher year-over-year comparisons.