BlackBerry (BB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

BlackBerry is benefiting from a sharper fundamental turnaround driven by QNX, where Q2 revenue rose 27% Y/Y to a record $80MM, supported by royalty ramp and the largest design-win quarter in QNX history, including the $100MM+ Alloy Kore win. The company also posted a broad earnings beat, with consolidated revenue up 26% Y/Y to $163MM, adjusted EBITDA of $47MM, and free cash flow of $27MM, while cash and investments reached $447MM, giving it flexibility for buybacks or M&A. Although Secure Communications remains uneven, the stronger QNX backlog, raised FY27 guidance, and improving margins suggest a more durable growth profile and better operating leverage ahead.

BlackBerry is facing a negative fundamental setup because its Secure Comms business has been cut to $260-270MM for FY27, implying a swing from +13% Y/Y in 1H to -6% Y/Y in 2H and exposing weak visibility amid U.S.-Canada trade tensions and declining RPO of $128MM, down 12% Y/Y. Although QNX is benefiting from record design wins, a $950MM backlog, and FY27 revenue guidance of $616-636MM with $141-158MM adjusted EBITDA, growth still slows sharply in Q4 to 5% at the midpoint, underscoring tougher auto procurement conditions and uneven conversion of wins into revenue. The stock’s risk-reward also looks stretched after a significant valuation re-rating, with QNX valued well above its 5-year average and Secure Comms still a modest, single-digit-growth contributor rather than a durable engine of acceleration.