BancFirst (BANF) Stock Forecast & Price Target

BancFirst is expected to see positive trends in the third quarter of 2026, as indicated by management during the Spirit transaction, with growth in noninterest bearing deposits, stable NIM and a modest benefit in case of a rate hike. In the first quarter of 2026, the company reported a 3 basis points NIM expansion, with a decline in costs and stable asset yields. Despite higher expenses and conversion-related costs, BancFirst's EPS exceeded estimates, driven by higher NII and fee income and lower provisions. Despite expected headwinds from payoff activity, BANF projects loan growth in the Texas and Oklahoma markets, while maintaining stable asset quality metrics. With solid market presence and steady performance, the company is estimated to see a mid-single digit NII growth in 2026, and is maintained at a NEUTRAL rating with a $125 price target.

BancFirst is a well-established bank with a strong presence in the Tulsa market, however their balance sheet is heavily skewed towards commercial real estate loans, which could pose a risk in the event of a economic downturn. Furthermore, the recent acquisition of Spirit BankCorp may provide some scale and density in the Tulsa market, but the transaction is expected to come in below 1.5x TBV and cost savings are projected to be minimal. Additionally, the company's NIM outlook is expected to be relatively flat, indicating potential challenges with loan growth and increased competition on pricing.