American Express (AXP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

American Express is experiencing a deceleration in commercial and consumer spending, as well as a drop in new card acquisitions. Although the company remains profitable and continues to experience growth in its key segments, concerns about over-indexing with younger, potentially more financially vulnerable consumers and a lack of growth above their long-term targets warrants a Sell rating at the current valuation. The target price is based on a 19x multiple of the company's 2026 EPS, which is generous compared to its historical 14-16x multiple during faster growth periods, but still lower than the current 20x.

American Express is facing several pressing concerns that contribute to the negative outlook on its stock. These include a slowdown in new account growth, decelerating card fees, and a decrease in billed business volume. Additionally, the company's delay in launching new products to address these issues could lead to further market share loss in the increasingly competitive fintech landscape. The recent marketing pullback also raises questions about Amex's future growth potential.