AVBP Stock Forecast & Price Target

ArriVent BioPharma is viewed favorably because firmonertinib has shown a strong best-in-class profile in underserved PACC EGFR-mutant NSCLC, with FURTHER data showing a 68% confirmed ORR, 16.0-month PFS, and 53% CNS ORR, which supports the pivotal Phase 3 ALPACCA trial. The company also has multiple catalysts beyond firmonertinib, including ARR-217 as a CDH17-targeted ADC for gastric and colorectal cancers and ARR-002 as a first-in-class dual MUC16/NaPi2b agent, expanding the pipeline’s optionality. Despite the FURVENT failure, the stock still appears reset and attractive because it has $373M of cash providing runway into 2028, while modeled approvals in 2029 and 2030 could unlock meaningful commercial value.

ArriVent BioPharma is facing a weaker fundamental outlook because its lead asset, firmonertinib, failed to meet the Phase 3 FURVENT trial’s PFS primary endpoint after the control arm outperformed expectations, with BICR showing 11.0 months versus 9.5 months and a p-value of 0.0654. Although secondary endpoints showed some clinical activity, including 11.0 months versus 7.1 months in investigator-assessed PFS and a 60% versus 33% confirmed ORR, the missed primary endpoint meaningfully damages confidence in the drug’s commercial prospects in 1L EGFR ex20ins+ NSCLC. The outlook is also pressured by a highly uncertain pipeline, as ARR-217 is modeled with only a 20% probability of approval, a potential 2031 U.S. launch in 2L CRC, and no revenue assumed in other indications.