Win Over FTC Should Allow Microsoft To Close Acquisition of Activision

Senior Equity Analyst

Neil Macker

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Blizzard

King

Activision

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Activision Blizzard is one of the world's largest third-party video game publishers and owns some of the largest and well-known video game franchises, including Call of Duty and World of Warcraft. We believe the firm is well placed to consolidate its leading position by developing compelling new versions of its existing franchises and by introducing new experiences, such as Overwatch. We expect Activision to continue to benefit from ongoing console demand, the ongoing revitalization of PC gaming, and the growth in the mobile market via King. 

Activision Blizzard’s sale to Microsoft remains pending as a few jurisdictions continue to scrutinize the deal. However, recent developments, including a U.S. court’s blocking of a preliminary injunction by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission and Microsoft’s agreement to halt litigation in the U.K. in order to restructure the deal, point to the deal closing in the near future. 

Activision has capitalized on the shift in the industry toward a bifurcated market consisting of major AAA blockbuster titles on one side and smaller indie games on the other side. Activision generally focuses on the higher end of the market, using its capital to fund higher-budget blockbusters and its marketing scale to support its titles across multiple advertising platforms. Activision's primary competition remains other large third-party publishers, such as Take-Two and EA, as well as console manufacturers (and first-party publishers) Sony and Microsoft.

Like its peers, the firm is focused on engaging users beyond the initial game sale via extending the monetization window by expanding the use of multiplayer options and releasing downloadable content. Both methods encourage gamers to hold on to the original game longer than in previous generations and provide an income stream from consumers who purchase the game secondhand. Activision has used DLC and multiplayer to extend the life of multi-billion-dollar franchises such as Call of Duty, and we believe franchises like Hearthstone and Overwatch can also maintain long-term success.

Business Strategy & Outlook

We assign Activision a narrow moat. Activision Blizzard is one of the world's largest third-party video game publishers and the firm behind some of the most compelling and lucrative franchises of all time. Over the last 15 years, the video game industry has undergone a number of changes including two console generation transitions; the rise of digital downloads; widespread adoption of mobile games; and the expansion of the free-to-play, or F2P, business model. Over this same period, Activision (the predecessor company) has transitioned from a console-based video game publisher to the one of the largest publishers on both consoles and the PC via the 2008 merger with Blizzard (then owned by Vivendi). The firm owns six core franchises that have grossed over $1 billion in revenue--World of Warcraft, Call of Duty, Diablo, StarCraft, Overwatch, and Hearthstone.

Its portfolio of widely successful franchises allows the firm to monetize its intellectual property year after year by delivering content via sequels, expansion packs, downloadable content, or DLC, and toys, exemplified by the decade-old World of Warcraft franchise and the annual versions of Call of Duty. These franchises can also spawn games that move the company into new arenas such as F2P (Hearthstone from WoW) and mobile (Call of Duty Mobile). The company's franchises have a dedicated user base, providing Activision with the leverage to push more of its games via direct digital channels thus bypassing retailers, generating higher gross margins and improving returns on invested capital.

We believe that the console and PC video game market will continue to largely fragment into two tiers: AAA games with large budgets and indie games with small budgets. Activision’s size and the depth of its franchise slate allow the firm to place larger bets on new IP than many smaller midsize competitors. This ability to make larger investments marks the publisher as one of a few destinations for studios looking to develop new large-budget AAA games.

Narrow

Economic Moat

Activision Blizzard

King Digital Entertainment is a social games development company. King develops games for the web, for mobile (iOS, Android, Windows Phone), Facebook, and Windows 10. King gained fame after releasing the cross-platform title Candy Crush Saga in 2012, considered the first successful game utilizing the freemium model. King was acquired by Activision Blizzard in February 2016 for $5.9 billion, and operates as its own entity within that company.

King Digital Entertainment

Activision is an American interactive entertainment company. Headquartered in Santa Monica, California and founded in 2008 through the merger of Vivendi Games and Activision, the company is traded on the NASDAQ stock exchange under the ticker symbol NASDAQ: ATVI, and since 2015 has been one of the stocks that make up the S&P 500. Activision Blizzard currently includes five business units: Activision, Blizzard Entertainment, Major League Gaming, Activision Blizzard Studios, and King Digital Entertainment.  Some of their popular games include: World of Warcraft, StarCraft, Diablo, Hearthstone, Heroes of the Storm, Overwatch, Call of Duty,  kylanders, Destiny, Candy Crush Saga, Candy Crush Soda Saga, Candy Crush Jelly Saga, Farm Heroes Saga, Pet Rescue and Bubble Witch.

Major League Gaming is a professional eSports organization. MLG is headquartered in New York City, New York and was founded in 2002 by Sundance DiGiovanni and Mike Sepso. MLG has held official video game tournaments throughout the United States and Canada. The Boost Mobile MLG Pro Circuit was a television broadcast of Halo 2 MLG tournaments in 2006 and 2007, ESPN.com, and other broadband sites. The company has also been involved in television production, and game development. MLG's aim is to elevate computer and console game tournaments to viable competitive and spectator events.

Major League Gaming

Activision Blizzard, Inc. engages in the development and publication of entertainment content and services. It operates through the following segments: Activision Publishing Inc., Blizzard Entertainment Inc., and King Digital Entertainment. The Activision Publishing Inc. segment delivers content through both premium and free-to-play offerings, as well as by licensing software to third-party or related-party companies that distribute Activision products. The Blizzard Entertainment segment is engaged in delivering content through both premium and free-to-play offerings, and by licensing software to third-party or related-party companies that distribute Blizzard products. The King Digital Entertainment segment is focused on delivering content through free-to-play offerings and generates revenue from in-game sales and in-game advertising on the mobile platform. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Santa Monica, CA.

Earnings data Q4 2023

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Microsoft

Sony

Activision Blizzard's shares rose more than 3% as Microsoft And Sony agreed to a 10-year Call of Duty deal.

Activision Blizzard's Shares Rise as Microsoft And Sony Agree on a Call of Duty Deal

The Federal Trade Commission suffered a major defeat last week when a federal court rejected the FTC's application to temporarily halt the deal.

Microsoft, UK regulators given more time to resolve dispute over $75B Activision deal

Microsoft and Sony signed an agreement to bring Call of Duty games to PlayStation consoles. As a reminder, Microsoft offered to acquire Activision Blizzard for $69 billion.

Microsoft and Sony sign deal to keep Call of Duty on PlayStation consoles

Microsoft and British regulators sought more time from a court Monday as the U.S. tech company uses a rare second chance to overcome opposition to its $69 billion bid for video game maker Activision Blizzard.

Microsoft and UK regulators want more time to work on $69 billion Activision deal

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) has agreed to leave the popular video game Call of Duty on Sony Group Corp (NYSE:SONY)'s PlayStation consoles following its $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard Inc (NASDAQ:ATVI).  Microsoft Gaming CEO Phil Spencer announced the agreement, which may alleviate concerns about the takeover's impact on competition, between Microsoft and Sony in a tweet on Sunday.

Microsoft and Sony strike deal to keep Call of Duty on PlayStation after Activision Blizzard takeover

Microsoft's $69 billion takeover of Activision Blizzard still needs final approval in the US and UK.

Microsoft to keep ‘Call of Duty' on PlayStation for 10 more years as Activision Blizzard takeover inches forward

Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT) has signed a binding agreement with Sony Corp (TYO: 6758) to keep “Call of Duty” available on PlayStation after taking over Activision Blizzard. Alex Kantrowitz reacts to the news Things seem to continue moving in the right direction for the $69 billion merger.

Sony just agreed to Microsoft's proposal on ‘Call of Duty'

Microsoft Corp. on Sunday announced a “binding agreement” to keep Activision Blizzard Inc.'s massively popular “Call of Duty” videogame available to Sony Corp.'s PlayStation platform once Microsoft's acquisition of Activison is complete.

Microsoft, Sony reach deal to keep Activision's ‘Call of Duty' on PlayStation

Microsoft signs an agreement to keep the 'Call of Duty' videogame franchise on Sony's PlayStation consoles following Microsoft's acquisition of Activision.

Microsoft Strikes Deal With Sony Over 'Call of Duty.' Activision Stock Rises.

Tesla

Activision Blizzard ATVI, +0.59% stock rose 4% as a federal appeals court late Friday denied the Federal Trade Commission's bid to temporarily block Microsoft's acquisition of the video games maker. Microsoft MSFT, +0.75% separately announced Sunday a “binding agreement” to keep Activision Blizzard Inc.'s massively popular “Call of Duty” videogame available to Sony's SONY, -1.51% PlayStation platform once Microsoft's acquisition of Activison is complete.

Activision Blizzard stock climbs on another court win, Tesla shares rise on Cybertruck rollout and other stocks on the move

Microsoft has signed an agreement with Sony to keep the Call of Duty video game series on the PlayStation console after the tech giant acquires video game maker Activision Blizzard.

Microsoft agrees to keep Call of Duty on Sony Playstation after it buys Activision Blizzard

Microsoft announced Sunday that the company reached a deal with Sony to keep the "Call of Duty" franchise available on PlayStation consoles after its Activision Blizzard acquisition.

Microsoft reaches deal to keep 'Call of Duty' franchise available on PlayStation

Software giant acquiesced after US trade commission expressed concern that Activision Blizzard acquisition would hurt gamers

Microsoft agrees to keep Call of Duty on PlayStation ahead of Activision buy

Microsoft and Sony have signed a binding deal to keep Call of Duty on the PlayStation platform.

Sony signs deal with Microsoft to keep Call of Duty on PlayStation

Microsoft said Sunday that it signed a binding agreement with Sony to keep Call of Duty on PlayStation after the pending $68.

Microsoft inks deal with Sony to keep Call of Duty on PlayStation

Sony had opposed the $75 billion merger amid regulators' concerns it would harm competition in the videogame industry.

Call of Duty Will Stay on PlayStation After Microsoft-Activision Deal

Microsoft has signed an agreement with Sony to ensure "Call of Duty" remains available on PlayStation after Microsoft closes its $69 billion Activision Blizzard merger, the tech giant said Sunday.

Call of Duty to remain on Playstation following Activision Blizzard Microsoft merger

Microsoft and Sony have signed an agreement to keep Activision's best-selling Call of Duty series available on PlayStation, after the conclusion of the deal.

Microsoft and Sony sign deal to keep Activision's Call of Duty on PlayStation

The Federal Trade Commission's request to pause the deal was rejected, clearing the few remaining hurdles for it to go through

US agency loses bid to halt Microsoft's $69bn purchase of Activision Blizzard

A federal appeals court denied a Federal Trade Commission request to stop the $68.7 billion Microsoft acquisition of Activision Blizzard.

Appeals court denies FTC request to stop $68.7 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard

An appeals court ruling clears a path for the $75 billion acquisition to close while litigation continues.

FTC Loses Latest Bid to Halt Microsoft-Activision Merger

A federal appeals court said it will not block Microsoft from closing its $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard, handing the Federal Trade Commission its second major defeat this week in a case involving the future of the video game industry.

Federal appeals court rules Microsoft can close its Activision merger

Microsoft still needs to satisfy U.K. regulators to finally close the deal.

Court Denies FTC Appeal To Block $69 Billion Microsoft-Activision Deal—Likely Ending U.S. Regulatory Battle

A federal appeals court late Friday denied the Federal Trade Commission's bid to temporarily block Microsoft Corp.'s MSFT, +0.75% $68.7 billion acquisition of video game publisher Activision Blizzard Inc. ATVI, +0.59%, clearing the path for the biggest gaming deal in the U.S. The 9th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals ruling means only UK regulators can stop closing the deal before a July 18 deadline. On Tuesday, a federal judge in San Francisco ruled against the FTC, which sued to block the deal in December, prompting the FTC's appeal on Wednesday.

Federal appeals court denies FTC bid to pause Microsoft-Activision deal

In a victory for Microsoft, the U.S. Appeals Court for the 9th Circuit late on Friday denied the Federal Trade Commission's appeal of a judge's decision that would have stopped the software maker from completing its $68.7 billion acquisition of video game publisher Activision Blizzard

News for Activision Blizzard Stock (ATVI)