Ardelyx (ARDX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ardelyx Inc. has demonstrated strong revenue performance, with total revenue surpassing consensus estimates by approximately $16 million, including an notable $8 million contribution from its product IBSRELA, showcasing its potential for continued growth. The company’s proactive measures, including investments in patient assistance programs and enhanced engagement with healthcare providers, are expected to bolster prescription volumes and patient adherence for its products, particularly XPHOZAH. Furthermore, data indicating significant improvements in patient outcomes with Tenapanor reinforce the therapeutic efficacy of Ardelyx's offerings, suggesting a solid foundation for future market success and revenue growth.

Ardelyx Inc. faces a challenging financial outlook primarily due to a decline in gross to net (GTN) sales percentage for its product Ibsrela, which fell to 31% in 3Q25 from approximately 32.2% in the previous quarter, indicating potential pricing pressure. Additionally, adherence to treatment with phosphate binders is notably low, with 57% of patients in a real-world study reporting non-compliance, which could negatively impact revenue generation for its product Xphozah. Lastly, the absence of fiscal year 2025 guidance contributes to ongoing uncertainty and raises concerns about the company's ability to capitalize on its peak net sales projections exceeding $1 billion for Ibsrela.