Ardelyx (ARDX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ardelyx Inc has reported total revenues that exceeded consensus estimates by approximately $16 million, with an $8 million contribution from its product, IBSRELA, which has resulted in a raised FY25 guidance by $10 million. The company demonstrated a robust 27% quarter-over-quarter growth when excluding one-time benefits, while reiterating peak US revenue guidance of $750 million prior to patent expiration, indicating strong operational performance. Additionally, XPHOZAH’s US net sales surpassed consensus by about $3 million, providing early validation of Ardelyx’s strategic response to Medicare Part D coverage changes.

Ardelyx Inc has experienced a significant challenge with the loss of Xphozah's Medicare Part D coverage, which could impact its revenue from a substantial segment of its market. Although the company has demonstrated a strategy to target the non-Medicare patient population, which constitutes approximately 40% of the market, the absence of guidance for FY25 creates ongoing uncertainty regarding its financial performance. This combination of market challenges and lack of forward-looking financial metrics contributes to a negative outlook for Ardelyx's stock.