ARDT Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ardent Health Inc. reported a substantial increase in EBITDA, reaching $143 million, which marks a 46% year-over-year growth and a margin improvement of 240 basis points to 9.1%. The company experienced a noteworthy rise in inpatient admissions, growing 5.8% year-over-year, significantly outpacing the peer average of 1.7%, while overall admissions growth of 2.9% fell within the company's previously retained guidance. Furthermore, improvements in contract labor expenses and expectations of capital expenditure benefits in 2025 indicate a positive trajectory for operational efficiency and investment in future growth.

The financial analysis indicates a negative outlook for Ardent Health's stock primarily due to disappointing underlying EBITDA performance, which showed a significant dependency on one-time revenue boosts from Kansas's State Directed Payments. Furthermore, the transition to a new revenue cycle management platform resulted in a substantial revenue adjustment, leading to a more pessimistic view on accounts receivable collectability and minimal EBITDA growth anticipated in 2026. Lastly, increased claims denials and ongoing professional fee challenges are expected to contribute to a substantial decline in core EBITDA generation, prompting significant cuts to the EBITDA guidance for both 2025 and 2026.