ARDT Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ardent Health Inc. has demonstrated significant financial growth, highlighted by a robust EBITDA increase of 46% year-over-year, resulting in a margin of 9.1%, which reflects a notable improvement of 240 basis points. The company has successfully increased inpatient admissions by 5.8% year-over-year, substantially outperforming the peer average of 1.7%, indicating strong demand and effective operational execution within its healthcare facilities. Furthermore, improvements in contract labor costs, decreasing to 3.5% of total salary and wages in the third quarter, along with the anticipated benefits from management's strategic initiatives, underscore the company's commitment to enhancing efficiency and profitability moving forward.

Ardent Health's recent financial performance has raised concerns, particularly with an EBITDA of $143 million that fell short of expectations and was significantly influenced by $15 million to $20 million in one-time benefits from Kansas SDPs. The transition to the Kodiak revenue cycle management platform led to a substantial revenue adjustment of $43 million, indicating potential challenges in accounts receivable collectability and suggesting minimal or negative EBITDA growth for 2026. Additionally, the ongoing issues with increased claims denials and professional fee pressures contribute to a downward revision of EBITDA estimates for 2025 and 2026, signaling a substantial risk to future profitability.