AMTM Stock Forecast & Price Target

Amentum Holdings is attractive because its guidance cut appears driven by timing and mix, not demand weakness, while adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to $1.115bn-$1.14bn and implied margin expanded to 8.1% at the midpoint. The company also delivered $290mn of adjusted EBITDA, $135mn of free cash flow, and a 3.0x net leverage ratio, showing that operational execution and deleveraging are improving even when revenue is pressured by divestitures and JV transitions. Its $48.2bn backlog, $17.7bn of net bookings, and exposure to higher-growth markets like nuclear, critical digital infrastructure, and defense support a durable long-term growth and margin expansion story.

Amentum Holdings is facing a structurally cautious outlook because roughly 80% of revenues come from the U.S. government, leaving it exposed to budget delays, defense-spending pressure, contract protests, and shutdown risk. Even though the business has diversified program exposure and operates in attractive end markets, about 10-15% of revenues are up for recompete each year and ~23% of revenues are fixed-price, which heightens execution and margin risk if costs rise or awards slip. The stock’s nearly 40% decline from its all-time high and current 7.9x EV/EBITDA multiple reflect investor skepticism despite 2026 estimates implying stronger fundamentals.