Amplitude (AMPL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Amplitude is viewed favorably because its core organic growth is reaccelerating, driven by stronger enterprise execution, better utilization rising from about 60% in Q2 2024 to 85% currently, and a healthier contract base that is supporting cross-sell expansion across multiple products. The business also appears to be benefiting from the Statsig acquisition, which contributed $17M of NNARR in 2Q, while total ARR grew 22% y/y to $410M and 2Q26 revenue reached $100.9M, both above expectations. Although margin pressure from inference costs and Statsig is a near-term headwind, the improved FY26 guide to 19.2% growth and the potential for 20%+ growth through FY27 suggest durable upside as operating leverage and platform adoption broaden.

Amplitude is facing a cautious fundamental backdrop because its growth, while improving, still depends on a subscription SaaS model exposed to regulatory changes, customer data laws, macro softness, and intense competition that could pressure retention and new-logo wins. Although 2Q revenue reached $100.9M and grew 21.2%, gross margin compressed to 70.7% from 74.8% as inference costs, data ingestion, and Statsig weighed on profitability, showing that AI-related usage and platform expansion may be eroding efficiency. The slight decline in NRR to 105% from 106% also suggests weaker net expansion among existing customers, and the loss of larger customers could further hinder financial obligations and growth objectives.