Amedisys (AMED) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Amedisys Inc. has demonstrated solid growth in its home healthcare and hospice segments, with total visits increasing by 5.2% year-over-year and hospice net revenue per day rising by 2.8% to $179.02 in the fourth quarter of 2024. The company's High Acuity Care segment also showed robust performance, reporting a revenue increase of 37.3% year-over-year, highlighting the potential for growth in higher-margin services. Additionally, while consolidated revenues were nearly aligned with market expectations at $598.1 million, the significant growth in non-Medicare FFS (MA) revenue by 19.4% could enhance the company's overall revenue trajectory moving forward.

Amedisys Inc. reported a year-over-year decline of 3.9% in Medicare revenues, which raises concerns about the sustainability of its primary revenue source in the Home Health segment, despite a reported revenue increase of 5.0% in that same segment. The adjusted EBITDA for the Home Health segment fell by 5.0%, leading to a notable decline in EBITDA margin by approximately 160 basis points to 15.1%, highlighting profitability pressures. Furthermore, the consolidated adjusted EBITDA miss of 7.5%, coupled with declines in hospice admissions and below-forecasted segment performances, underscores ongoing challenges in Amedisys's financial health and growth prospects.