Alumis Inc (ALMS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alumis is attractive because its lead TYK2 inhibitor envudeucitinib has shown deep, durable psoriasis efficacy in phase III, with PASI 75/90/100 improving from week 16 to week 24, plus strong quality-of-life, itch, and scalp psoriasis benefits alongside a well-tolerated safety profile. The pipeline also has meaningful upside from a 3Q26 SLE readout and A-005’s planned Phase 2 Parkinson’s biomarker study in 1H27, where healthy volunteer data already showed tolerability, maximal peripheral target inhibition, and CNS penetration, supporting the broader TYK2 platform thesis. Financially, the company has $502.3M in cash and investments with runway into 4Q27, while modeled peak 2035E sales of $3.4B for psoriasis and $139.4M for A-005 highlight substantial long-term optionality.

Alumis is facing a fundamental setback because envudeucitinib’s Phase IIb SLE study (n=408) missed both the primary BICLA and secondary SRI-4 endpoints in the overall population, undermining confidence in the program’s broad clinical utility. Although the IFNGS-high subgroup showed encouraging responses and safety was clean, the need for additional analysis, likely two Phase III studies, and unresolved questions around FDA acceptance create meaningful regulatory delay and development risk. With a valuation framework that relies heavily on PsO and YE27 net cash, and with A-005 still carrying failure and competition risk, the company’s pipeline looks too uncertain to support a bullish fundamental view.