Alkermes (ALKS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alkermes PLC is expected to experience revenue growth through 2030, driven by the acquisition of Lumryz, which is projected to generate approximately $265-$275 million in annualized sales by 2025, ultimately reaching about $550 million in narcolepsy and an additional $250 million in idiopathic hypersomnia. The company shows promising potential for earnings per share (EPS) growth as it strategically invests in its developmental pipeline, particularly for alixorexton, which has demonstrated encouraging efficacy in early data. Moreover, the acquisition of Lumryz enhances Alkermes’s commercial opportunities without burdening its balance sheet, reinforcing a favorable outlook for both the near- and mid-term future.

The financial outlook for Alkermes PLC appears negative primarily due to anticipated declines in Lumryz sales after reaching peak revenues of approximately $600 million in 2030, as well as potential earnings pressure from the erosion of its royalty business and proprietary products. Key risks include the still early-stage nature of the orexin program's efficacy, which remains unproven in larger studies, and significant exposure to Medicaid, introducing vulnerability given current health policy dynamics. Additionally, competitive pressures from other orexin 2 receptor agonists and the possibility of deteriorating market share for oxybate drugs could further hinder growth prospects in the company's core therapeutic areas.