Alight (ALIT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alight is supported by a resilient model built on more than 90% recurring revenue, a blue-chip customer base of roughly 5K clients including just over half of the Fortune 500, and more than 33M individuals on its platform, which underpins durable demand for its Employer Solutions offerings. Although total revenue declined 3% Y/Y in both 1Q26 and 2Q, results beat expectations, while project revenue grew 29% and 11% respectively, helping offset recurring revenue softness and demonstrating leverage from higher-margin work. The company’s multi-year technology-led transformation, improved retention, and positive new sales bookings should support a return to growth, with a path toward 3%-5% organic revenue growth in 2029 and margin recovery toward 22%-24% over the next 4-5 years.

Alight is facing a deteriorating fundamental backdrop, with higher customer attrition in 2025 now expected to drive 7%-8% revenue declines and 26%-29% adjusted EBITDA declines in 2026, while management also signaled lower margin performance and weaker free cash flow conversion. The pressure appears broad-based, as the company’s historical 96%-98% revenue retention has slipped amid softer new bookings and lower non-recurring project revenue, leading to approximately 4% organic revenue decline and 6% adjusted EBITDA decline in 2025. With $215M in cash, $1,996M in debt, and net leverage of 3.6x trailing EBITDA that could peak at 5.2x-5.3x in 2Q27, the outlook remains negative because the turnaround is likely to take longer and growth is not expected to return until 2028.