ALEX Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alexander & Baldwin Inc. has demonstrated strong performance in its same-store net operating income (NOI) growth, prompting management to raise the 2025 forecast by 80 basis points to a range of 3.4-3.8%, attributed to a high occupancy rate of 95.6%, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 140 basis points. The company is actively monetizing its land bank, with several development projects underway and leasing commitments contributing to its positive outlook. Furthermore, Alexander & Baldwin benefits from low liquidity, a solid operational track record, and limited market competition, which collectively enhance its growth potential in the commercial real estate sector.

Alexander & Baldwin's stock outlook is negatively influenced by several key financial risks, primarily due to geographic concentration that could adversely affect retail sales and tenant performance, thereby putting cash flows at risk. Additionally, rising interest rates present further challenges, as they may lead to earnings dilution from maturing debt, reduced return potential on new investments, and expanded cap rates, potentially lowering property valuations. Furthermore, the reliance on tourism and a transient population in Hawaii may exacerbate the volatility in local retail sales, further impacting overall financial stability.