ALC Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alcon is poised for a positive financial outlook as it anticipates a recovery in share performance driven by an improving top-line growth profile and solid operating margin expansion as it approaches FY26. The company's contact lens segment has shown resilience, with the 1Q25 market retail value increasing in the mid-single digits, and Alcon projects its own growth to outperform this market trend. Additionally, expectations of continued margin improvements are forecasted to contribute to double-digit earnings per share growth, further enhancing the company's financial appeal.

Alcon faces significant risks to its growth prospects, including potential market share losses in the intraocular lens (IOL) and contact lens markets, which could lead to weaker-than-expected revenue growth and slower margin improvements. The company's bear case scenario anticipates flat to low-single digit revenue growth along with minimal operating expense leverage, adversely impacting earnings per share (EPS) growth. Additionally, external factors such as economic fluctuations, competitive pressures, and delays in product rollouts could further hinder Alcon's financial performance, particularly in light of challenging year-over-year comparisons due to pricing strategies and market dynamics.