Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Akebia Therapeutics Inc is poised for significant growth, particularly with the anticipated increase in prescribing access for Vafseo, which is expected to rise more than fourfold by the end of 2025 and over sevenfold by the start of 2026. The company’s strategic focus on enhancing market penetration for Vafseo in the chronic kidney disease patient population, along with the implementation of a TIW dosing protocol by US Renal Care, could result in Vafseo becoming a standard of care, thereby boosting its adoption in both dialysis-dependent and non-dialysis patients. Furthermore, as dialysis organizations are projected to increase their orders into 2026, Akebia is on track to access an estimated 275,000 patients, which complements the promising outlook for continued uptake and market relevance of its therapeutic offerings.

The analysis suggests a negative outlook for Akebia Therapeutics's stock due to several fundamental concerns. Firstly, market expectations are low, particularly regarding its opportunity in the dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (DD-CKD) segment, which is perceived to be significantly undervalued. Additionally, the company's decision to cease development of the CKD non-dialysis market, coupled with the failure to meet primary endpoints in a Phase 2 trial, raises concerns about its viability in generating efficacy and successful commercialization within an increasingly competitive and uncertain regulatory environment.