Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Akebia Therapeutics is poised for significant growth, particularly with Vafseo, as projections indicate that prescribing access is expected to expand by more than four times by the end of 2025 compared to the third quarter of 2025, and by over seven times at the beginning of 2026 versus the start of 2025. The strategic initiatives, such as the implementation of a TIW dosing protocol by US Renal Care and a focus on market penetration within the chronic kidney disease dialysis patient population, are anticipated to enhance Vafseo's positioning, potentially establishing it as the standard of care. With a sizeable total addressable market exceeding 540,000 dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease patients and an increase in patient access expected, Akebia's commercial strategy seems well-aligned to capitalize on this growth potential in the near term.

Akebia Therapeutics Inc is encountering significant challenges that cast a negative outlook on its stock, primarily stemming from low market expectations despite potential opportunities in the chronic kidney disease (CKD) segment. The company has decided to cease pursuing the CKD non-dialysis market, a strategic pivot that may hinder its growth prospects and draw focus away from its ongoing developments in dialysis-related treatments. Additionally, the firm faces inherent industry risks, such as the possibility of unexpected clinical trial outcomes and regulatory hurdles, which could further complicate its commercialization efforts and profitability.