Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Akebia Therapeutics Inc's positive outlook is primarily driven by anticipated significant increases in prescribing access for Vafseo, with expectations of over a fourfold rise by year-end 2025 and a more than sevenfold increase by early 2026 compared to early 2025. The implementation of a TIW dosing protocol within US Renal Care clinics is expected to enhance patient access and could establish Vafseo as the standard of care (SoC) for anemia treatment in chronic kidney disease, further solidifying its market presence. Additionally, the anticipated growth in ordering from dialysis organizations and the increasing patient population could lead to substantial market penetration for Vafseo, reinforcing the company's potential for future revenue growth.

Akebia Therapeutics Inc faces significant challenges that contribute to a negative outlook for its stock, primarily stemming from low market expectations for its potential in the diabetic kidney disease sector, despite the expansive opportunity available. The company has encountered setbacks, as evidenced by the failure to meet primary endpoints in a Phase 2 trial, and has strategically decided to cease pursuit of the CKD non-dialysis market, potentially stalling overall growth and reducing focus on its promising product, Vafseo. Furthermore, Akebia must navigate inherent industry risks, including unpredictable clinical outcomes, regulatory hurdles, and the pressures of an increasingly complex and price-sensitive commercial landscape.