AJG Stock Forecast & Price Target

Arthur J. Gallagher is poised for continued financial success, with an anticipated expansion in underlying brokerage adjusted EBITDAC margins of 50-70 basis points in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the full fiscal year 2025. The company has demonstrated consistent resilience, with a strong organic revenue growth forecast of 6.5% for fiscal year 2025, supported by stable increases in key segments such as casualty lines and personal lines. Furthermore, the upward revisions of earnings per share for 2025 through 2027 reflect a positive outlook driven by favorable foreign exchange conditions and improving brokerage margin expectations.

Arthur J. Gallagher reported earnings per share (EPS) of $2.32, falling short of both consensus and prior guidance estimates of $2.47, attributed to lower-than-expected revenue and margins in its brokerage segment. Organic growth for the brokerage segment was recorded at 4.5%, below estimates of 5.1% and significantly lower than the 6.1% achieved in the same period a year prior, signaling an overall decline in insurable risks driven by economic weaknesses. Furthermore, the revision of organic growth forecasts for the Risk Management segment, now projected to be lower than previously estimated for the upcoming years, reflects ongoing challenges that may diminish the company's premium valuation.