Affirm (AFRM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Affirm Holdings, a leader in the buy-now, pay-later market, achieved approximately $36 billion in transaction volume for fiscal 2025, driven primarily by its interest-bearing loans, which generate the majority of its revenue. The company has demonstrated a robust network effect, offering significant value to both merchants and consumers, which is expected to facilitate continued volume growth and market share gains. Analysts have revised their forecasts for key performance indicators, including gross merchandise volume and adjusted operating income, indicating a positive outlook for Affirm's financial trajectory moving forward.

The financial analyst expresses concern regarding Affirm Holdings' guidance for fiscal year 2026, specifically indicating that the Street's forecast for net revenue yield appears overly optimistic. This sentiment reflects potential challenges in sustaining revenue growth, particularly considering that Affirm relies heavily on interest-bearing loans, which make up over 70% of its transaction volume. As Affirm's operations remain predominantly within the United States, accounting for over 95% of its revenue, any adverse developments in this primary market could further exacerbate the negative outlook.