Aflac (AFL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Aflac is supported by resilient earnings power that appears underappreciated, with adjusted run-rate EPS around $1.84 even after one-time items and a quarter that was only modestly weaker than expected. Strategic actions are improving the growth and capital profile: a roughly $4.8 billion investment portfolio restructuring should add about $50 million of annual pre-tax net investment income, while raising Japanese liability cessions from 10% toward about 30% could free approximately $2.5 billion of capital over time. Despite a higher-than-expected Japanese benefit ratio and slower U.S. premium growth, management expects 2026 Japan sales to exceed 2025, and stronger cross-sell of cancer, medical, and Tsumitasu products supports a constructive outlook.

Aflac is facing a softening fundamental backdrop as reported EPS of $1.75 missed both consensus at $1.77 and PSC at $1.76, with the shortfall driven mainly by weaker Japan results. Japan’s benefit ratio reached 63.4% year to date, above the high end of its 60-63% guide, while weaker currency movements, lower sales, and delayed campaigns put the 2026 JPY 80 billion sales goal at risk. In the U.S., net earned premiums were challenged and are now expected to come in below the 3-6% guidance range, reinforcing a negative outlook despite management’s hopes for stronger second-half sales in group voluntary, dental, and vision products.