Autodesk (ADSK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Autodesk is projected to achieve a total revenue of $1,804.7 million in Q3, which reflects a year-over-year growth of 15%, largely driven by a 20% increase in the Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) sector and a 9% rise in AutoCAD revenue. The company is also experiencing strong demand reflected in a 21% increase in total billings year-over-year and robust large customer Enterprise Business Agreement (EBA) renewals. Furthermore, Autodesk's revised FY26 revenue estimate of $7,161 million indicates a promising growth trajectory of approximately 16.8% year-over-year, supported by the implementation of a new direct billing model that has significantly boosted reported revenues.

The analysis of Autodesk's stock presents a negative outlook largely due to several fundamental challenges the company faces. Key concerns include a modest decline in billings among architecture firms as noted by the AIA, which may be compounded by heightened competition and potential loss of market share, as well as leadership transition uncertainties. Furthermore, the anticipated slowdown in the construction sector, exacerbated by high office vacancy rates and challenges in transitioning to new business models, poses significant downside risks to Autodesk's sales and margin growth projections.