Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp is positioned for financial growth, driven by anticipated increases in average selling prices (ASPs) and a favorable shift in clinical mix, leading to an improvement in gross profit margins. The transition to the NovaSeq X platform is expected to enhance sequencing margins, contributing further to profitability as the company looks towards significant revenue growth in their minimal residual disease (MRD) segment by 2025. Additionally, a 17% increase in episode pricing sets the stage for achieving a long-term ASP target of over $1,300, supporting a strong outlook for the company's financial performance.

Adaptive Biotechnologies is anticipated to maintain flat Immune Medicine revenue, with no growth value assigned as the company focuses on generating interest in its TCR-Antigen model and developing its autoimmunity program. A significant factor contributing to the negative outlook is that approximately 25% of patients who receive an ID test do not obtain a minimal residual disease (MRD) result within the following year, which poses a challenge to increasing the frequency of tests. Despite holding a leadership position in the market, there remains substantial uncertainty around future growth potential, limiting the prospects for revenue expansion.