ADAM Stock Forecast & Price Target

Adamas Trust is positioned for a constructive fundamental rebound because the 3Q book decline was driven mainly by temporary Agency positioning rather than realized asset sales, with the company preserving recovery optionality by keeping its cash Agency bonds intact while reducing gross TBA shorts 76% to about $680M and widening the Agency duration gap back to roughly 0.6 years. Earnings quality also improved, as EAD of $0.30 per share covered the quarterly dividend raised to $0.30, while leverage fell to 4.4x portfolio economic recourse and excess liquidity reached about $447M, or 67% of market cap, supporting flexibility to redeploy capital into higher-yielding assets. The core credit portfolio remains stable, with BPL-Rental 60+ day delinquencies improving to 1.4%, multifamily payoffs running at a 55% annualized rate, and management expecting earnings pickup as unlevered assets are rotated into levered strategies.

Adamas Trust is under pressure because 3Q26 revealed a severe book-value reset, with adjusted book value falling from $11.05/share to $8.88/share and GAAP BVPS dropping from $10.16/share to $7.93/share as rising rates and wider spreads hurt an Agency book positioned for lower rates. Although EAD/sh. of $0.30 covered the newly increased $0.30 dividend and liquidity improved to $447M, the earnings mix remains fragile given weaker mortgage-banking income and dependence on spread-driven returns in a difficult operating environment. The company’s credit-sensitive residential and commercial assets, leverage of 4.8x, and exposure to interest-rate volatility, prepayments, and funding-market disruptions create substantial downside risk to both book value and dividend durability.