AECOM (ACM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

AECOM is supported by a record $27.8 billion backlog, up 13.1% year over year and 6.2% sequentially, which points to strong revenue visibility despite near-term CM-related headwinds and delayed project starts. Its adjusted EBITDA has risen from $657 million in fiscal 2019 to $1.203 billion in fiscal 2025, with margins expanding from 10.6% to 15.9%, reflecting a durable execution and cost-improvement story. The company’s exposure to secular growth markets such as water, transportation, environment, and PFAS remediation, alongside a shareholder-friendly policy of returning substantially all free cash flow, strengthens the long-term fundamental case.

AECOM is facing a negative fundamental setup because a $337 million pre-tax charge and the related design-build P3 project delays exposed weaker project execution, pressured credibility, and forced a sharp reset in fiscal 2026 expectations, with adjusted EPS cut to $3.95–$4.15 and adjusted EBITDA to $935 million–$965 million. Free cash flow was just $55 million in 3Q’26, down ~80% year over year, and management expects roughly $500 million of cash burn in 1H’27 as contract assets rose to about $620 million and leverage moved up to 1.5x. Although backlog reached $27.816 billion, the benefits are offset by slower CM starts, higher near-term interest expense, and heavy government and macro exposure that can keep margins and cash generation under pressure.