ACI Worldwide (ACIW) Stock Forecast & Price Target

ACI Worldwide is viewed positively because its core payment software franchise is delivering solid top-line momentum, with 2Q revenue up 7% year over year to $430M and adjusted EBITDA up 12% to $91M, while margins expanded 200 basis points to 34.3% on stronger high-margin Software License Fees. The company also benefits from a healthier mix, as recurring revenue reached 78% of sales, Payment Software grew 10% to $196M, and management raised 2026 guidance midpoints for revenue and EBITDA, signaling confidence in continued execution. Longer term, demand for real-time payments, international exposure with natural FX hedges, and plans to expand the Bank segment addressable market through ACI Connetic support durable organic growth, modest margin expansion, and low- to mid-teens Non-GAAP EPS growth.

ACI Worldwide is facing a weak fundamental setup as new ARR bookings fell 25% Y/Y in 2Q to $18M and were down 15% Y/Y over the trailing twelve months, while License and Services bookings also declined 12% Y/Y to $255M, signaling softer demand and poorer visibility. Management’s 3Q guidance calls for a 12%-14% Y/Y revenue decline to $417M-$427M and a 44%-47% Y/Y drop in adjusted EBITDA to $90M-$95M, reflecting a sharp falloff in high-margin software license revenue after unusually strong comparisons in 3Q25 and 3Q24. Although the business remains globally scaled and recurring, its heavy reliance on 4Q renewal timing, ASC 606 front-loaded revenue recognition, and exposure to economic, regulatory, and industry-consolidation risks create volatile quarterly results and downside risk to margins.