ABG Stock Forecast & Price Target

Asbury Automotive Group is viewed positively because its unusually depressed valuation already reflects lagging KPIs, while earnings are expected to inflect as operational headwinds dissipate and the company forecasts double-digit earnings growth in 2027. Its scale and mix support the thesis: about $18 billion of revenue in 2025, 158 new-vehicle stores, 37 collision centers, and more than 70% of new-vehicle revenue from luxury and import brands, alongside recurring F&I income and a broad 14-state footprint. Additional upside comes from Tekion-driven SG&A efficiency, Chambers integration, used-car optimization, and capital allocation, with leverage at 3.6x and roughly $400 million+ in annual FCF supporting buybacks.

Asbury Automotive Group is facing a weaker fundamental backdrop because its average same-store growth in new units, used units, service and parts revenue, and gross profit over the last three years has been the lowest in the group, a pattern that has already translated into earnings volatility. Management’s shift to Tekion DMS and the non-cash deferral EPS headwind from Total Care Auto are pressuring reported results, with 2026 EPS expected to decline 7.2%, the worst in the group, even though SG&A as a percentage of gross profit remains best-in-class. Growth is also vulnerable to a less favorable M&A market, higher U.S. tax rates, stalled F&I growth, and macro slowdown risk, while the company’s leveraged balance sheet adds to financial fragility.