AARD Stock Forecast & Price Target

Aardvark Therapeutics is currently facing a delay in their ARD-101 program due to reversible cardiac observations at above-target therapeutic doses in a healthy volunteer study. While this may cause a 10-11 month delay in the HERO trial, the company is conducting a comprehensive review and expects to provide further guidance in 2Q26. The fate of their ARD-201 program is uncertain, as no patients have been dosed yet. This uncertainty and potential delay have led to our cautious downgrade from Buy to Neutral.

Aardvark Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that may be facing potential safety concerns with its lead product candidate, ARD-101, due to its use of denatonium, a taste-aversive compound commonly used for non-food products. The lack of a titration design in a recent human volunteer study raises concerns about the potential for non-linear bioavailability at higher doses, which could negatively impact the drug's effectiveness and safety. Additionally, while there may be potential for revenue from ARD-201 for weight maintenance and weight loss, peak sales of $300M in 2036 may not justify the company's current valuation, especially considering the assumed approval only in 2030 and beyond.