AAPG Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ascentage Pharma Group's stock benefits from the remarkable sales performance of Olverembatinib, which generated approximately RMB 217.4 million (around US$30.3 million) in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 93% year-over-year increase, with cumulative sales exceeding $100 million since its launch. The company's expansion is further evidenced by increased formulary coverage at over 295 hospitals, a 47% rise compared to the previous year, and a significantly expanded distribution network involving approximately 867 hospitals and 290 distributors. Additionally, the broader market context is favorable, as a China Biotech ETF has gained roughly 58% year-to-date, indicating improved investor sentiment and liquidity in the sector, which could enhance Ascentage's future growth prospects.

Ascentage Pharma Group faces a negative outlook primarily due to the sustained downward pressure on margins and revenue from aggressive NRDL repricing cycles and a volume-based procurement program that continues to impact the pricing structure of innovative therapies. Additionally, the company's failure to meet primary endpoints in pivotal studies raises concerns regarding its global expansion potential, while the declining clinical response rates for key therapies further diminish confidence in its pipeline. Moreover, slower adoption rates in China limit growth prospects for Olverembatinib, as recent global studies have not demonstrated a clear clinical differentiation from existing treatments, indicating potential challenges for future commercialization.