AAPG Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ascentage Pharma Group has demonstrated strong commercial momentum, with Olverembatinib achieving sales of RMB 217.4 million (approximately US$30.3 million) in the first half of 2025, marking a significant year-over-year increase of about 93%. The company further expanded its market presence, as evidenced by a 47% year-over-year growth in formulary coverage at hospitals, alongside an increase in direct-to-patient pharmacies and hospitals onboarded. Additionally, the broader context indicates a favorable environment for biotech firms, as evidenced by the robust performance of a China Biotech ETF, which has gained approximately 58% year-to-date, highlighting a growing investor interest in the sector.

Ascentage Pharma Group faces a negative outlook primarily due to pressures from the ongoing volume-based procurement program, which, while initially exempting innovative therapies, is expected to lead to reduced margins and slowed revenue growth as aggressive NRDL repricing cycles take effect. Furthermore, the failure to meet primary endpoints in pivotal studies raises concerns about the company's ability to expand globally, undermining its growth potential. Lastly, challenges such as slower adoption rates in China and failures to differentiate its treatments clinically from existing products significantly threaten Ascentage's competitive positioning in the market.