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  4. Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
Science and Technology

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before Jan 20, 202922¢22%
Before Jan 1, 202813¢13%
Before Jan 1, 20274.6¢5%
$68,837,549.28 Vol.

These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceWhite House
  • Est. resolution date—
  • Total event volume$68,837,549.28
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Before Jan 1, 2027
    Volume$58,981,789.90
    Price4.8¢
    +15.00% today
  • Before Nov 1, 2026
    Volume$4,162,657.18
    Price1¢
    — today
  • Before Jan 1, 2028
    Volume$2,075,610.62
    Price15¢
    -7.14% today
  • Before Jan 20, 2029
    Volume$1,648,430.62
    Price23¢
    0.00% today
  • Before Dec 1, 2026
    Volume$991,240.38
    Price3¢
    +50.00% today
  • Before OctoberClosed

Trade No contracts

  • Before Jan 1, 2027
    Volume$58,981,789.90
    Price95.4¢
    -0.63% today
  • Before Nov 1, 2026
    Volume$4,162,657.18
    Price100¢
    -1.00% today
  • Before Jan 1, 2028
    Volume$2,075,610.62
    Price87¢
    +1.16% today
  • Before Jan 20, 2029
    Volume$1,648,430.62
    Price78¢
    0.00% today
  • Before Dec 1, 2026
    Volume$991,240.38
    Price98¢
    -1.02% today
  • Before OctoberClosed

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?. The leading outcome is Before Jan 20, 2029, with an estimated probability of 22% and a Yes contract price of $0.23. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using White House as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

How to trade the odds on Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

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  2. 2

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  3. 3

    Buy and sell event contracts

    Explore Prediction Markets from the Invest menu or search Public for Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?. Review the latest odds and probabilities, then buy or sell event contracts based on your view.

  4. 4

    Manage your portfolio

    Track your prediction market positions alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. Plus, create AI Agents for investing and connect your portfolio through MCP to AI models like ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Live odds on Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

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Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

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Event estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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Trading event contracts involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Before investing, please read our Event Contracts Risk Disclosure and carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Live data is for informational purposes only and may be delayed or incorrect.


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