Will Apple win its case against OpenAI?

If Apple Inc. has achieved the superior outcome in the trial-level resolution of Apple v. OpenAI, No. 5:26-cv-07078 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. For this market, the case is Apple Inc. v. Chang Liu, Tang Yew Tan, OpenAI Foundation f/k/a OpenAI, Inc., OpenAI Group PBC, and io Products, LLC f/k/a io Products, Inc., U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California No. 5:26-cv-07078-EJD. Apple Inc. achieves the superior outcome through the following exclusive hierarchy: Net Monetary Recovery (Highest Priority): Apple Inc. achieves the superior outcome if it receives a larger net monetary award than all opposing parties combined (after offsetting any awards against Apple Inc.). Attorney's fees and costs are excluded. Substantive Legal Victory (Second Priority): If no net monetary advantage exists, Apple Inc. achieves the superior outcome if it prevails on claims seeking the largest dollar amount of relief in its original pleadings, or if relief amounts are equal or unclear, on the greater number of primary causes of action. Case Termination Advantage (Third Priority): If the case terminates without substantive judgment, Apple Inc. achieves the superior outcome if opposing parties voluntarily dismiss all claims against Apple Inc. with prejudice. All other termination scenarios result in no superior outcome for any party. Settlements: Apple Inc. achieves the superior outcome if the parties settle with a disclosed net payment to Apple Inc. Apple Inc. does not achieve the superior outcome if the parties settle with a disclosed net payment from Apple Inc. to opposing parties. No party achieves a superior outcome if the parties settle with mutual releases and no disclosed payment direction, or if settlement terms are sealed and no Source Agency reports payment direction within seven days of the settlement announcement. Key exclusions: Applies only to trial-level resolution and specifically excludes all appeals processes. Procedural victories alone do not constitute superior outcomes. A temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, or expedited-discovery order is not a final trial-level resolution. A denial, partial ruling, or dismissal that leaves claims pending on a motion to dismiss is not final; a final dismissal terminating the entire trial-level action is evaluated under the hierarchy above.