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Politics

Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?

Pete Hegseth26¢26%
Susie Wiles24¢24%
Howard Lutnick17¢17%
$577,609.04 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If Pete Hegseth is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached) after May 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. A leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceThe New York Times, White House
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$577,609.04
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Pete Hegseth
    Volume$155,674.32
    Price26¢
    -16.13% today
  • Susie Wiles
    Volume$69,416.18
    Price24¢
    +20.00% today
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
    Volume$64,218.66
    Price8¢
    -16.67% today
  • Markwayne Mullin
    Volume$51,714.34
    Price6¢
    +100.00% today
  • Howard Lutnick
    Volume$41,685.72
    Price21¢
    +13.33% today
  • Chris Wright
    Volume$24,208.34
    Price2¢
    0.00% today
  • Marco Rubio
    Volume$20,269.82
    Price2¢
    +100.00% today
  • Doug Burgum
    Volume$19,043.26
    Price2¢
    -50.00% today
  • Doug Collins
    Volume$16,276.48
    Price2¢
    0.00% today
  • Brooke Rollins
    Volume$15,169.88
    Price3¢
    +50.00% today

Trade No contracts

  • Pete Hegseth
    Volume$155,674.32
    Price75¢
    +7.25% today
  • Susie Wiles
    Volume$69,416.18
    Price77¢
    -5.00% today
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
    Volume$64,218.66
    Price96¢
    +1.06% today
  • Markwayne Mullin
    Volume$51,714.34
    Price97¢
    -4.17% today
  • Howard Lutnick
    Volume$41,685.72
    Price86¢
    -2.35% today
  • Chris Wright
    Volume$24,208.34
    Price99¢
    0.00% today
  • Marco Rubio
    Volume$20,269.82
    Price100¢
    -1.01% today
  • Doug Burgum
    Volume$19,043.26
    Price99¢
    +1.02% today
  • Doug Collins
    Volume$16,276.48
    Price99¢
    0.00% today
  • Brooke Rollins
    Volume$15,169.88
    Price98¢
    -1.02% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?. The leading outcome is Pete Hegseth, with an estimated probability of 26% and a Yes contract price of $0.26. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? is Jan 20, 2029. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using The New York Times, White House as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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