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  4. Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
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Which states will redistrict before the midterms?

California98¢98%
Tennessee98¢98%
Florida97.5¢98%
$4,754,409.38 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the California legislature has adopted new, qualifying congressional district maps after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. These maps must be: Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; AND Not enjoined, vacated, stayed, or struck down in full by any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in California as of the Expiration Date; AND In effect for use in the first scheduled federal election after its adoption For clarity: Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will resolve to YES if they are ultimately in effect by the Expiration Date Maps that are completely redrawn by a court or special master will resolve to NO Maps that are withdrawn by the Legislature before implementation will resolve to NO If no new maps are adopted by Nov 1, 2026, the market will resolve to NO Clarification (09/03/26): Alabama’s May 2026 legislation providing for special congressional primary elections does not constitute adoption of a new congressional district map for purposes of this Contract. The reinstatement and subsequent use of the congressional district map enacted in 2023, including its use in the August 2026 special primary, do not satisfy the Payout Criterion because that map was adopted before Issuance. This market may still resolve to “Yes” if the Alabama legislature adopts a new qualifying congressional district map before November 1, 2026 that otherwise satisfies the Payout Criterion. For the avoidance of doubt, the provision concerning maps temporarily stayed pending appeal does not make a map adopted before Issuance qualifying under the Payout Criterion.

  • Full contract termsView
  • Sourceany court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in geography (including U, geography Secretary of State, in hierarchical order, legislature of geography
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$4,754,409.38
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
    • Immediate family members (spouses and dependents) of any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
    • Paid staffers on any campaign listed within this event.
    • Third-party vendors, contractors, consultants, and outside counsel (and employees thereof) engaged by any campaign listed within this event.
    • Paid employees of national, state, or congressional party organizations (including, e.g., the DNC, RNC, DCCC, NRCC, DSCC, and NRSC).
    • Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and independent-expenditure-only political committees ("Super PACs") active in any race listed within this event.
    • Registered federal lobbyists retained by any campaign, party organization, or PAC active in any race listed within this event.
    • Holders of federal and statewide public office.
    • State legislators serving on committees with jurisdiction over election administration in any state with a race listed within this event.
    • All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
    • All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
    • All staff of the Executive Office of the President, including the Office of the President and the Office of the Vice President.
    • Commissioners and staff of the Federal Election Commission.
    • Senior staff (Schedule C and equivalent political appointees) of any federal agency with jurisdiction over election administration, election security, or election-related enforcement, including without limitation the Department of Justice (Public Integrity Section, Election Crimes Branch, and Civil Rights Division Voting Section) and the Department of Homeland Security (CISA).
    • All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices.
    • Federal and state judges presiding over active litigation related to any race listed within this event.
    • All Electors who may cast ballots in connection with the determination of the President and/or Vice President of the United States.
    • State Secretaries of State (and equivalent chief election officials), members of state and local boards of elections, election directors, registrars, and senior staff of state and local election administration offices.
    • Any person working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
    • Paid employees of major polling organizations. The Exchange shall maintain and publish a list of polling organizations it has designated as "major" and may modify that list at any time. This prohibition does not apply to all employees of an organization that contains a polling division (e.g., the prohibition does not apply to all employees of Quinnipiac University despite the presence of Quinnipiac University's polling division).
    • Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations, including but not limited to Fox News, ABC News, the Associated Press, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ, NBC News, The New York Times, and Reuters.
    • Employees of exit-polling and election-night survey operations engaged by media organizations or campaigns in any race listed within this event, including but not limited to Edison Research and the National Election Pool.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Virginia
    Volume$1,249,187.80
    Price2.4¢
    -80.00% today
  • Missouri
    Volume$641,118.94
    Price1.9¢
    -45.00% today
  • California
    Volume$418,563.90
    Price99¢
    -1.01% today
  • South Carolina
    Volume$333,252.46
    Price2.1¢
    +5.00% today
  • Louisiana
    Volume$267,244.34
    Price98.8¢
    -0.51% today
  • New York
    Volume$242,528.98
    Price3.4¢
    -85.00% today
  • Utah
    Volume$218,020.42
    Price3.4¢
    -13.33% today
  • Alabama
    Volume$212,417.58
    Price2¢
    0.00% today
  • Indiana
    Volume$170,956.16
    Price3.7¢
    -95.00% today
  • Texas
    Volume$160,954.18
    Price98.9¢
    -0.51% today

Trade No contracts

  • Virginia
    Volume$1,249,187.80
    Price99.8¢
    +0.81% today
  • Missouri
    Volume$641,118.94
    Price98.9¢
    +0.92% today
  • California
    Volume$418,563.90
    Price1.5¢
    +100.00% today
  • South Carolina
    Volume$333,252.46
    Price98¢
    -0.10% today
  • Louisiana
    Volume$267,244.34
    Price2.5¢
    +25.00% today
  • New York
    Volume$242,528.98
    Price99.7¢
    +1.73% today
  • Utah
    Volume$218,020.42
    Price98.5¢
    +0.41% today
  • Alabama
    Volume$212,417.58
    Price99¢
    0.00% today
  • Indiana
    Volume$170,956.16
    Price99¢
    +1.94% today
  • Texas
    Volume$160,954.18
    Price2.5¢
    +25.00% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Which states will redistrict before the midterms?. The leading outcome is California, with an estimated probability of 98% and a Yes contract price of $0.99. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Which states will redistrict before the midterms? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Which states will redistrict before the midterms?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Which states will redistrict before the midterms? is Nov 1, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in geography (including U, geography Secretary of State, in hierarchical order, legislature of geography as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Which states will redistrict before the midterms? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Which states will redistrict before the midterms?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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