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  4. Which party will win the next UK general election?
Elections

Which party will win the next UK general election?

Labour party38¢38%
Reform party37¢37%
Conservative party21¢21%
$522,386.42 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the Labour party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceThe New York Times
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$522,386.42
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
    • Immediate family members (spouses and dependents) of any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
    • Paid staffers on any campaign listed within this event.
    • Third-party vendors, contractors, consultants, and outside counsel (and employees thereof) engaged by any campaign listed within this event.
    • Paid employees of national, state, or congressional party organizations (including, e.g., the DNC, RNC, DCCC, NRCC, DSCC, and NRSC).
    • Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and independent-expenditure-only political committees ("Super PACs") active in any race listed within this event.
    • Registered federal lobbyists retained by any campaign, party organization, or PAC active in any race listed within this event.
    • Holders of federal and statewide public office.
    • State legislators serving on committees with jurisdiction over election administration in any state with a race listed within this event.
    • All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
    • All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
    • All staff of the Executive Office of the President, including the Office of the President and the Office of the Vice President.
    • Commissioners and staff of the Federal Election Commission.
    • Senior staff (Schedule C and equivalent political appointees) of any federal agency with jurisdiction over election administration, election security, or election-related enforcement, including without limitation the Department of Justice (Public Integrity Section, Election Crimes Branch, and Civil Rights Division Voting Section) and the Department of Homeland Security (CISA).
    • All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices.
    • Federal and state judges presiding over active litigation related to any race listed within this event.
    • All Electors who may cast ballots in connection with the determination of the President and/or Vice President of the United States.
    • State Secretaries of State (and equivalent chief election officials), members of state and local boards of elections, election directors, registrars, and senior staff of state and local election administration offices.
    • Any person working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
    • Paid employees of major polling organizations. The Exchange shall maintain and publish a list of polling organizations it has designated as "major" and may modify that list at any time. This prohibition does not apply to all employees of an organization that contains a polling division (e.g., the prohibition does not apply to all employees of Quinnipiac University despite the presence of Quinnipiac University's polling division).
    • Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations, including but not limited to Fox News, ABC News, the Associated Press, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ, NBC News, The New York Times, and Reuters.
    • Employees of exit-polling and election-night survey operations engaged by media organizations or campaigns in any race listed within this event, including but not limited to Edison Research and the National Election Pool.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Restore Britain party
    Volume$205,187.94
    Price5.2¢
    -43.33% today
  • Reform party
    Volume$150,267.72
    Price34¢
    +8.82% today
  • Conservative party
    Volume$56,920.48
    Price25¢
    -4.55% today
  • Labour party
    Volume$43,153.46
    Price38¢
    +5.56% today
  • Green party
    Volume$41,112.50
    Price3.4¢
    -60.00% today
  • Liberal Democratic party
    Volume$20,760.32
    Price1.5¢
    +100.00% today
  • Bruv party
    Volume$4,276.00
    Price0.3¢
    -90.00% today
  • Your Party
    Volume$708.00
    Price0.8¢
    — today

Trade No contracts

  • Restore Britain party
    Volume$205,187.94
    Price98.3¢
    +1.34% today
  • Reform party
    Volume$150,267.72
    Price70¢
    -4.55% today
  • Conservative party
    Volume$56,920.48
    Price79¢
    +1.28% today
  • Labour party
    Volume$43,153.46
    Price66¢
    -3.13% today
  • Green party
    Volume$41,112.50
    Price99.6¢
    +9,860.00% today
  • Liberal Democratic party
    Volume$20,760.32
    Price99.9¢
    +9,700.00% today
  • Bruv party
    Volume$4,276.00
    Price99.9¢
    +9,890.00% today
  • Your Party
    Volume$708.00
    Price99.9¢
    -0.10% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Which party will win the next UK general election?. The leading outcome is Labour party, with an estimated probability of 38% and a Yes contract price of $0.38. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Which party will win the next UK general election? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Which party will win the next UK general election?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Which party will win the next UK general election? is Aug 31, 2029. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using The New York Times as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Which party will win the next UK general election? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

How to trade the odds on Which party will win the next UK general election?

  1. 1

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  3. 3

    Buy and sell event contracts

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Live odds on Which party will win the next UK general election?

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Which party will win the next UK general election?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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Trading event contracts involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Before investing, please read our Event Contracts Risk Disclosure and carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Live data is for informational purposes only and may be delayed or incorrect.


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