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Elections

Texas Governor margin of victory

Hinojosa, 5+ pts28¢28%
Hinojosa, 1+ pts25¢25%
Hinojosa, 4+ pts15¢15%
$42,519.24 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

  • Full contract termsView
  • Sourceofficial election authority responsible for certifying results in
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$42,519.24
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event

Trade Yes contracts

  • Hinojosa, 3+ pts
    Volume$41,716.62
    Price13¢
    -25.00% today
  • Hinojosa, 5+ pts
    Volume$449.06
    Price9.9¢
    -6.67% today
  • Hinojosa, 4+ pts
    Volume$232.00
    Price13¢
    +15.38% today
  • Hinojosa, 1+ pts
    Volume$121.56
    Price25¢
    -47.92% today
  • Hinojosa, 2+ pts
    Volume$0.00
    Price20¢
    -100.00% today
  • Hinojosa, 6+ pts
    Volume$0.00
    Price9.9¢
    -100.00% today
  • Hinojosa, 7+ pts
    Volume$0.00
    Price19¢
    -100.00% today

Trade No contracts

  • Hinojosa, 3+ pts
    Volume$41,716.62
    Price88¢
    +4.76% today
  • Hinojosa, 5+ pts
    Volume$449.06
    Price99.4¢
    +2.86% today
  • Hinojosa, 4+ pts
    Volume$232.00
    Price93.8¢
    -2.30% today
  • Hinojosa, 1+ pts
    Volume$121.56
    Price82¢
    +44.23% today
  • Hinojosa, 2+ pts
    Volume$0.00
    Price84¢
    +29.87% today
  • Hinojosa, 6+ pts
    Volume$0.00
    Price99.9¢
    +21.95% today
  • Hinojosa, 7+ pts
    Volume$0.00
    Price99.9¢
    +35.14% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Texas Governor margin of victory. The leading outcome is Hinojosa, 5+ pts, with an estimated probability of 28% and a Yes contract price of $0.099. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Texas Governor margin of victory by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Texas Governor margin of victory. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Texas Governor margin of victory is Nov 3, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using official election authority responsible for certifying results in as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Texas Governor margin of victory and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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  3. 3

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Live odds on Texas Governor margin of victory

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Texas Governor margin of victory

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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