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FDA decision: BBP-418 by Ml Bio Solutions Inc. (in 2026)

Yes94¢94%
No6¢6%
$1,708.98 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the FDA's decision on BBP-418 by Ml Bio Solutions Inc. in 2026 is a full approval or an accelerated approval, the market resolves to Yes. This market will resolve to No if the FDA's decision is a denial (CRL issued), a withdrawal by the sponsor, or a conditional approval — or if no decision is issued. BBP-418 (also known by its chemical name ribitol) is an experimental oral small-molecule drug being developed by BridgeBio to treat a rare inherited muscle disease called limb-girdle muscular dystrophy type 2I (LGMD2I/R9). Think of it like a missing ingredient in a factory: the disease prevents muscle cells from attaching a critical sugar coating to a key protective protein, and BBP-418 supplies the raw material the factory needs to get that process running again. It is taken orally and was shown in the FORTIFY trial to significantly boost levels of the properly-coated protein in patients, which appears to translate into meaningful improvements in muscle and lung function.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceAppliedXL
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$1,708.98
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Members of any Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB), Independent Data Monitoring Committee (IDMC), clinical endpoint adjudication committee, or equivalent independent oversight body with access to unblinded data for the trial..
    • Principal investigators, sub-investigators, clinical research coordinators, and site staff at sites enrolling or treating patients in the trial, to the extent they have access to unblinded or aggregated efficacy or safety data.
    • Employees, contractors, and consultants of contract research organizations (CROs), central laboratories, biostatistical firms, and data-management vendors engaged by the manufacturer to conduct, analyze, or monitor the trial.
    • Officers, directors, employees, and review staff of the FDA, EMA, PMDA, or other regulatory authority with access to non-public submissions, review documents, or communications relating to the trial or to the drug.
    • Members of institutional review boards (IRBs) or ethics committees reviewing safety or efficacy data for the trial.
    • Employees of investment banks, financial advisors, or other advisors engaged by the manufacturer or its partners with access to non-public clinical data for the trial or knowledge of the timing of its disclosure.
    • Persons who have entered into confidentiality, consulting, or expert-network agreements with the manufacturer or its agents that provide access to non-public clinical data, timelines, or results for the trial.
    • Immediate family members (spouses, domestic partners, parents, children, and siblings) and household members of any of the above.
    • Any person who has obtained material non-public information regarding the timing, content, or outcome of the results of the trial through any means, including inadvertent disclosure, misappropriation, or breach of a confidentiality obligation.
    • Patients or subjects who are enrolled in, have been screened for, or are otherwise participating in the trial.

Trade Yes and No contracts

  • Yes
    Volume$1,708.98
    Price95¢
    +2.17% today
  • No
    Volume$1,708.98
    Price12¢
    -25.00% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for FDA decision: BBP-418 by Ml Bio Solutions Inc. (in 2026). The outcome is a full approval or an accelerated approval, with an estimated probability of 94% and a Yes contract price of $0.95. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for FDA decision: BBP-418 by Ml Bio Solutions Inc. (in 2026) by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for FDA decision: BBP-418 by Ml Bio Solutions Inc. (in 2026). On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for FDA decision: BBP-418 by Ml Bio Solutions Inc. (in 2026) is Jan 1, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using AppliedXL as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for FDA decision: BBP-418 by Ml Bio Solutions Inc. (in 2026) and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Live odds on FDA decision: BBP-418 by Ml Bio Solutions Inc. (in 2026)

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FDA decision: BBP-418 by Ml Bio Solutions Inc. (in 2026)

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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