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Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?

2 or more5¢5%
1 or more4¢4%
5 or more3¢3%
$135,883.58 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the total number of human plague cases reported in Irkutsk Oblast during Oct 2026 is at least 2, then the market resolves to Yes. Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (November 8). Only cases that Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, confirms after Issuance and before November 1, 2026 count. Cases newly reported during the window between November 1 and Expiration do not count, even if they are backdated to the specified time period. A case is a human infection with Yersinia pestis (plague in any form) in Irkutsk Oblast, including a posthumous confirmation, and each infected person counts once. Suspected cases, and illness described as pneumonia of undetermined etiology, do not count.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceCDC, World Health Organization, national health agencies, national health statistics reporting bodies
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$135,883.58
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

  • 5 or more
    Volume$99,471.70
    Price4¢
    +50.00% today
  • 2 or more
    Volume$21,529.00
    Price5¢
    +25.00% today
  • 1 or more
    Volume$14,882.88
    Price6¢
    -20.00% today

Trade No contracts

  • 5 or more
    Volume$99,471.70
    Price99¢
    -1.02% today
  • 2 or more
    Volume$21,529.00
    Price97¢
    -1.04% today
  • 1 or more
    Volume$14,882.88
    Price96¢
    +1.05% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?. The leading outcome is 2 or more, with an estimated probability of 5% and a Yes contract price of $0.05. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026? is Nov 1, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using CDC, World Health Organization, national health agencies, national health statistics reporting bodies as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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  3. 3

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  4. 4

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Live odds on Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?

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Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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