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Elections

Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory

Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6%38¢38%
Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3%32¢32%
Lula da Silva, 0-3%21¢21%
$329,853.44 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 3% to 6%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (votos válidos, excluding blank and null votes) received by the candidate named in the market minus the share received by the other candidate in the runoff if the named candidate wins, or the share of the candidate that finishes first if the named candidate loses. If the named candidate wins, the margin will be positive; if the named candidate loses, the margin will be negative; if the named candidate ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceTribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$329,853.44
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event

Trade Yes contracts

  • Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3%
    Volume$82,439.54
    Price32¢
    -5.88% today
  • Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6%
    Volume$65,729.58
    Price38¢
    0.00% today
  • Flávio Bolsonaro, 6-9%
    Volume$49,161.02
    Price11¢
    -37.50% today
  • Lula da Silva, 0-3%
    Volume$47,261.18
    Price20¢
    +50.00% today
  • Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9%
    Volume$37,782.08
    Price3¢
    +50.00% today
  • Lula da Silva, 3-6%
    Volume$34,393.50
    Price5¢
    +150.00% today
  • Lula da Silva, 6-9%
    Volume$7,529.46
    Price1¢
    — today
  • Lula da Silva, ≥9%
    Volume$5,557.08
    Price1¢
    — today

Trade No contracts

  • Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3%
    Volume$82,439.54
    Price69¢
    +3.03% today
  • Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6%
    Volume$65,729.58
    Price63¢
    0.00% today
  • Flávio Bolsonaro, 6-9%
    Volume$49,161.02
    Price90¢
    +7.14% today
  • Lula da Silva, 0-3%
    Volume$47,261.18
    Price82¢
    -8.14% today
  • Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9%
    Volume$37,782.08
    Price99¢
    -1.02% today
  • Lula da Silva, 3-6%
    Volume$34,393.50
    Price96¢
    -3.06% today
  • Lula da Silva, 6-9%
    Volume$7,529.46
    Price100¢
    -1.00% today
  • Lula da Silva, ≥9%
    Volume$5,557.08
    Price100¢
    -1.00% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory. The leading outcome is Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6%, with an estimated probability of 38% and a Yes contract price of $0.38. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory is Oct 25, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

How to trade the odds on Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory

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  2. 2

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  3. 3

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Live odds on Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory

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Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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