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Todd Carlisle
@tcardizzle
This week ahead promises to be one of the more eventful in recent memory. More than one third of the S&P 500 is set to report quarterly results this week, headlined by Apple $AAPL , Microsoft $MSFT , Amazon $AMZN , Google-parent Alphabet $GOOG , and Tesla $TSLA the five largest U.S. companies by market value. The FOMC meeting runs Tuesday-Wednesday (so expect to hear the word "tapering" 6.3 billion times) Also on Thursday the $HOOD IPO. Before I go in to more detail on the week ahead let's check how Q2 earnings season has gone so far. Overall, 24% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q2 2021 to date. Of these companies, 88% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is above the five-year average of 75%. If 88% is the final percentage for the quarter, it will mark the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008. The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings growth rate for the second quarter is 74.2% today, compared to an earnings growth rate of 69.4% last week and an earnings growth rate of 63.2% at the end of the second quarter (June 30). Positive earnings surprises reported by companies in multiple sectors (led by the Financials, Health Care, Information Technology, and Communication Services sectors) were responsible for the improvement in overall earnings for the index during the past week. If 74.2% is the final growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest year-over-year earnings growth reported by the index since Q4 2009 (109.1%). Translation: Companies are crushing it so far. That could be why we went from Monday's drop, the largest of the year, to a 4 day straight rally. The companies reporting this week are a substantial portion of the total market cap. Considering the sheer number reporting I'm only listing the highlights (as chosen by me). I'll enclose a link to the full calendar. Another personal observation, this quarter seems to be producing more "correct" post earnings movements. I can only think of a few companies who beat and then dropped afterwards and none of them drop far and mostly recovered within a day. https://finance.yahoo.com/calendar/earnings/ Changed my mind.. I got through Tuesday and there were just so many.. click the link above and you can see the earnings calendar for the day lol. Also next week, and something we've all seen looms large over the market, the FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday. While no action is expected, there could be some mention of the central bank's possible wind down of its bond program. That could move the markets since the tapering of the central bank's bond purchases is seen as the first step on the way to interest rate hikes. That's the one event that has the possibility to override positive earnings. If all that wasn't enough there's the $HOOD IPO. I did a pretty extensive write up on this that I think everyone should read before deciding to invest. https://public.com/p/rGxMbSzvPjHOm28mmYaMIPePMEO6FZKp I would like to add to that some new developments. Robinhood is releasing "A" shares to the public which equal 1 vote per share. They are issuing "B" shares to themselves. Those are 10 votes per share. This gives the two founders over 2/3 of the votes. Sounds like democratizing finance right? 80% of Robinhood's revenue comes from payment for order flow, a practice currently under intense scrutiny by the SEC. If they were to make any adjustments to this practice the consequences to Robinhood would be severe. They have a current expected list price of $38-$42 for their 7/29 listing. That gives them a valuation of around $55 billion. Obviously you do what you want but I'm staying far far away. I've provided EXTENSIVE reasoning outside of "they suck." You might have some kind of personal feelings on the issue but my opinion is that there are concrete business reasons that this is a poor IPO. When you add that into the obvious moral reasons well.. do what you want.. **Edit** Because I keep seeing people say this I feel the need to clear up two things. 1) You CANNOT short an IPO. I don't know why anyone would think that you could initial public offering means there are no shares to borrow. 2) There are no options on IPOs Therefore with those two things being true anyone telling you that they are shorting Robinhood or buying puts is wrong. So coming off a good week heading into a busy week let's hope we end this Friday like we ended the last one. If you would like to discuss these issues with over 2,000 other investors join us at https://vyg.mobi/s/11244 /// #earnings #ipo #fomc #weekahead
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