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Patrick
@namastestrategy
#Crypto #cryptocurrency Cryptocurrencies are created at a dizzying 😵‍💫 rate. There’s been a slight slowdown in spontaneous crypto inception with the insane string of crypto-connected dominoes falling over the past year in the cryptoverse (FTX, Voyager, Celsius, 3AC, to name just a few…). But we’ve still seen new ICOs launch and follow the same meteoric path as thousands (literally) before them. A look at this chart shows just how rapidly new crypto gets introduced. And how quickly it collapses. As we’ve seen with this week’s announcement of the depegging of $USDC from the $1 due to Circle’s exposure to $SIVB (and the Terra Luna debacle before it…), even supposedly “stable” things aren’t necessarily stable in the cryptoverse. Why does this matter? Not every crypto project is going to make it. In fact, similar to animal species on Earth, a high proportion of the crypto projects that have ever been launched have reached extinction. On the way there, those projects take the money of their most die-hard supporters. That could be you if you haven’t done your due diligence and YOUR OWN research. So if you’re going to gamble on crypto, what can you do to be safe? You can’t. Just start there. You are taking a risk that is very hard to quantify in an unregulated sector filled with and affected by hyperbole, myth, fantasy, and outright self-delusion at times. It’s important to accept that about any cryptocurrency you purchase. When Elon tweets, $DOGE rises (there’s actual scientific research on that; see references at the end). It’s hard to say there’s such a thing as “responsible gambling”, but , if you choose to walk down that path, you can at least take a harm reduction approach. Consider asking yourself the following questions BEFORE buying: 🧐What does this cryptocurrency supposedly do? 🥸Who launched this project? What do I know (or what can I find out) about the founders? If these questions are hard to answer, or you keep feeling like the explanations are just too technical to wrap your mind around, maybe take some time to actually write down the pros/cons of gambling on this crypto project. Also, decide BEFORE buying: How much are you willing to gamble on this project? Some intentionality can go a long way. 📈📉Where will your loss/gain exit points be? Deciding in advance can take SOME of the emotion out if it- as the novelist Cara Bertoia said, “It’s hard to walk away from a winning streak, even harder to leave the table when you’re on a losing one.” AFTER you’re in, periodically ask: Is this project still what I thought it was at the beginning? Has anything changed with the risk for this project? Are the founders still involved? Whether yes or no, is that a good thing? If all this sounds like too much work, because you just want to take the plunge, get your ticket to the moon, launch to the land of the wealthy, and touch down in the land of early retirement…take a moment to reflect on why you’re not willing to do the work. Try saying out loud to yourself whatever your reasons are for buying this crypto at this moment. Maybe even write it down. There’s a whole movement these days around investment journaling. While it may be true that “scared money don’t make no money”, neither does uninformed excited money. Irrational exuberance is the enemy of any portfolio. And if you happen to see crypto as a safe gamble that you’re sure you can win because it’s different for you, just remember… “There is a very easy way to return from a casino with a small fortune: go there with a large one” — Jack Yelton Sources/References: https://www.statista.com/statistics/863917/number-crypto-coins-tokens/ Stablecoin USDC breaks dollar peg after firm reveals it has $3.3 billion in SVB exposure https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/11/stablecoin-usdc-breaks-dollar-peg-after-firm-reveals-it-has-3point3-billion-in-svb-exposure.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard Ante, L. (2023). How Elon Musk's twitter activity moves cryptocurrency markets. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 186, 122112. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162522006333 Shahzad, S. J. H., Anas, M., & Bouri, E. (2022). Price explosiveness in cryptocurrencies and Elon Musk's tweets. Finance Research Letters, 47, 102695. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612322000241 Tandon, C., Revankar, S., & Parihar, S. S. (2021). How can we predict the impact of the social media messages on the value of cryptocurrency? Insights from big data analytics. International Journal of Information Management Data Insights, 1(2), 100035. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667096821000288
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